The following case studies provide diverse, high-level examples of recent projects completed for Campbell-Hill clients.
Air Service Development & Airport Planning
Overview: Austin, Texas (AUS), and all of Central Texas, lacked nonstop transatlantic service despite record breaking economic and population growth.
The Challenge: Create an airline business case to demonstrate the potential of the AUS-London and transatlantic market and organize support from the business community to gain new nonstop service.
The Solution: Although multiple target airlines and markets existed, British Airways nonstop service to London (LHR) ranked as the top priority due to oneworld’s longtime leading presence at AUS and because British Airways had the appropriate aircraft for the mission.
Campbell-Hill produced a detailed route forecast and business case which demonstrated British Airways could successfully fill the aircraft, but do so with a fare premium and negligible impact on existing AA/BA service to LHR at DFW.
Campbell-Hill worked with AUS and the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce to organize travel spend data, quantifying corporate demand for new nonstop service to LHR and helped develop a comprehensive incentive package from community stakeholders (AUS, the Chamber, Visit Austin and the City
The Results: British Airways started nonstop service in March 2014, just in time for South by Southwest, with its newest aircraft, the Boeing 787-8.
The route has since been viewed as the breakthrough example of how airlines can serve secondary markets with new technology aircraft that bypass traditional connecting hubs.
Overview: Shannon, Ireland (SNN) lacked nonstop service to Canada despite significant economic and historical ties between the Shannon Region and Canada.
The Challenge: Create an airline business case to demonstrate the strength and viability of the SNN-Canada market, leading to new nonstop service.
The Solution: Based on a detailed analysis of existing and potential passenger demand at SNN, the top airline and route candidates were identified, with Air Canada nonstop service to Toronto (YYZ) ranked as the top priority.
Using its proprietary forecasting model combined with the deep airline network planning experience of its staff, Campbell-Hill produced a detailed route forecast and business case.
Campbell-Hill joined Shannon Airport to present the forecast and business case to Air Canada at its head office in Montreal.
The Results: After reviewing Campbell-Hill’s presentation, Air Canada noted the route forecast largely supported its own internal projection.
Air Canada announced nonstop service on the SNN-YYZ route starting in June 2018 with its newest aircraft, the Boeing 737 MAX 8.
Overview: As part of its facilities planning process, The Greater Orlando Airport Authority (GOAA) was in need of analysis that evaluated current facilities and gate utilization as well as a forecast of when the current facilities would no longer accommodate growth.
The Challenge: Orlando International’s (MCO) unique Central Terminal and four separate Air Side complexes creates unique challenges for measuring both current utilization and the ability to accommodate future expansion or new entry.
The Solution: Campbell-Hill reviewed peak season/day activity for each carrier by Air Side Complex to calculate current gate utilization. We then estimated likely growth for each carrier based on strategic trends and fleet plans as well as potential new entrants in order to identify current and expected future gate and facilities constraints by Air Side and year.
The Results: GOAA used this analysis to inform its decision to move forward with funding the new South Terminal and to support its Federal funding applications.
Overview: The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (“PANYNJ”) had committed to build a replacement for Terminal A at Newark Liberty International Airport (“EWR”) but needed a comprehensive analysis of potential future demand to support an RFQ for Terminal Operators.
The Challenge: The PANYNJ had a demand forecast prepared by another firm, but it was dated and lacked the detail necessary to support their planned RFQ.
Campbell-Hill was asked to prepare a detailed forecast of future demand, both in terms of operations and passengers, domestic and International at multiple points through 2027.
The Solution: The requirement to provide future demand for the New Terminal A necessitated a detailed analysis of all airport activity and forecasts of unconstrained demand for all incumbent and potential new entrant carriers at EWR.
Utilizing a base of 2017 peak operations, Campbell-Hill prepared the potential unconstrained demand for peak summer activity for 2021, 2022, 2027. This demand had to be constrained by the FAA limit on hourly operations at EWR, as well as FIS and RON parking limits.
Multiple iterations of airport-wide gate plots, with various terminal and gate assignment methodologies, were performed in order to determine the optimal utilization for each terminal at EWR. Forecasts included passenger activity by hour, by terminal.
The Results: Campbell-Hill provided the PANYNJ with a detailed analysis and plan for optimal use of current and planned facilities at EWR. These results supported their RFQ for terminal operations.
Overview: An Airport Master Plan is a key document for determining future facility requirements.
The Challenge: Passengers within the BDL Catchment Area have historically been pulled to other, larger nearby airports, primarily NYC – traditional methods for forecasting future demand, such as trend or regional share analysis greatly under-estimate true Airport potential.
The Solution: Forecast built using an air service recapture analysis, rather than more traditional methods. Projected service drove forecast operations and passengers due to traffic recapture of travelers living within the BDL Catchment Area.
The Results: Immediate short-term (next five years) forecast based on realistic expectations of new air service at BDL. Longer-term forecasts were based on econometric growth rates.
Overview: Portland, Oregon has developed many new nonstop domestic and high profile international routes, but did not have service to Mexico City
The Challenge: While Portland had high profile nonstops to Tokyo and Amsterdam on Delta, they were less interested in service to Mexico City until a broader Joint Venture was signed with SkyTeam partner, Aeromexico.
There was competition in the market already from another Mexican carrier out of Volaris.
Aeromexico was evaluating many different markets to prioritize once a new JV with Delta was approved.
The Solution: Portland met with Aeromexico on a regular basis at conferences and at their headquarters. PDX also included representatives of the business and ethnic community to support the efforts.
PDX supported the Delta Aeromexico JV process as well as U.S. Mexico Open Skies negotiations.
PDX visited Aeromexico in late 2016 in preparation for the new Joint Venture.
PDX had to work with Customs and Border Protection to educate them on the importance of the flight to the region.
The Results: PDX – MEX was among the first batch of routes announced after the Joint Venture began.
Aeromexico senior leadership noted that the PDX business case was “one of the best they had ever seen”.
Overview: Belize had no scheduled nonstop service to Canada even though it was a large source market for inbound tourists.
The Challenge: Belize Tourism Board had previously met with airlines in coordination with tourism outreach programs in Canada, however, airlines required more data to help make the case.
Belize – Canada itineraries had many nonstop options but with many connecting hubs in
The Solution: The BTB and Campbell-Hill team worked to layout the analytical case and quantify for airline network planners the strong Canadian market to Belize was primed for a targeted tourism campaign to grow demand to Belize.
CHAG’s helped Belize present a traffic forecast and air service analysis to both Air Canada and WestJet.
By working together, the team also prioritized how to target and align incentives to the carrier.
The Results: WestJet announced seasonal Belize – Toronto in October 2016 and then added Calgary – Belize in 2017 based on the strong performance of the initial service.
Air Canada announced seasonal Belize – Toronto in December 2017.
Economic & Financial Analysis
Overview: Examined the potential impact of a FedEx Express air express hub to the South China and China economies.
The Challenge: FedEx was trying to get Chinese government support (regulatory and financial) to re-locate its Asian hub to South China.
The challenge lay in convincing the Chinese that the benefits of allowing a foreign integrated carrier to operate an express hub counteracted any perceived impact on Chinese airlines and transportation companies.
The goal was to accurately demonstrate that express hubs and services have strong positive impacts on economic development and trade, and that the competitive effects on national carriers were negligible.
The Solution: Using benchmarking analysis and modeling, the Campbell-Hill analysis demonstrated that the superior connectivity provided with an express hub would attract certain air-dependent manufacturers not currently in South China while also providing benefits to Chinese airlines and other transportation companies supporting intra-China traffic.
The Results: FedEx successfully negotiated the right to open its Asia One hub at Guangzhou Airport in 2008 with the full support of the Chinese government. A similar study conducted for UPS allowed their relocation to Shenzhen in 2010.
Overview: This study measured the economic impact of commercial aviation at the U.S. state and congressional district level for use in advocating for development projects benefiting the U.S. airline industry (for Air Transport Association, now the A4A).
The Challenge: The U.S. airline industry is highly dependent on Federal funding of airports, air traffic control systems and other aviation infrastructure. Aviation manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, air passenger and cargo activities are concentrated geographically. The challenge was to demonstrate that access to air transportation provides benefits that might not be immediately apparent.
The Solution: While direct impacts may be concentrated geographically, the secondary impacts are widespread throughout the country as local industries support the aircraft manufacturing and air travel sectors. The high impacts of passenger spending which is facilitated by expanded air access typically outweigh the aviation-based impacts and affect all communities.
The Results: The study results were used to lobby the Federal, state and local governments and were made available via an online website that allowed individuals to access the impacts for individual Congressional Districts.
Overview: Campbell-Hill supplied a detailed analysis of the important role of its Dubai hub within FedEx’s worldwide network and the expansion and profitability of its international activities.
The Challenge: There is a limited understanding of the importance of international regulatory liberalization to the expansion of air connectivity worldwide. The U.S. economy is highly dependent on air trade for both industrial competitiveness and productivity, and the ability for U.S. consumers to purchase goods from overseas. The damage that restricting air access for FedEx and other U.S. airlines would have on the U.S. economy would far outweigh any short-term benefits.
The Solution: A full analysis of the FedEx worldwide network was used to demonstrate the importance of the Dubai hub to the entire network and well to expanding access to developing markets in Africa, South Asia and the Mideast.
Using internal traffic, financial and flight pattern data, as well as U.S. and international trade and economic data, we measured the economic impact of lost operating rights at Dubai on FedEx and the U.S. economy including lost jobs and revenues for U.S. exporters.
The Results: This study was submitted to the U.S. government as part of the ongoing analysis of the benefits of Open Skies agreements in general, and specifically between the U.S. and U.A.E.
Overview: This study measured the economic impact of Emirates Airlines on the U.S. economy including U.S. airport-level employment, income and spending supporting passenger and cargo activities, direct/indirect purchase of U.S. merchandise and service exports, stimulated passenger spending, and stimulated U.S. trade based on increased connectivity to world markets.
The Challenge: The importance of competitive and efficient air transportation is often ignored in aviation economic impact studies that typically concentrate on impacts solely based on the transport activities. Similarly, the impact that foreign airlines have within the U.S. is often understated and exclude key areas.
The Solution: In addition to the airline/airport impacts associated with transporting passengers and cargo, this study measured the trade impacts including spending on U.S. merchandise (aviation and other) and services most of which was not directly related to U.S. operations. It also measured the stimulated passenger travel/spending and merchandise/service exports resulting from improved access to overseas markets, many of which had limited or no direct air service prior to Emirates’ entry into the U.S. market.
The Results: The study is being used to promote the value of Emirates’ continued access to U.S. markets.
Airline Network & Strategic Planning
Overview: An investment group comprised of experienced aviation industry professionals was seeking to understand the feasibility of establishing a new Low Cost or Ultra-Low Cost Carrier based in North America.
The Challenge: While the client had experience in passenger aviation, they recognized the need to understand the dynamics unique to the LCC and ULCC business models.
With a strong background in operations, finance and a strong profitable business, the client was looking for an objective view of the practical opportunity to launch new competitive service, including market analysis, fleet plan, revenue, cost and profit projections.
The Solution: The first steps included an overview of the competitive environment and the evolution of the LCC/ULCC business model in the U.S.
Further analysis of market opportunities, potential niches for a new entrant to fill; a detailed review of pricing methodologies, including various ancillary revenue strategies; evaluated multiple fleet options and developed cost models based on selected aircraft, critical mass fleet requirements, optimal density, fuel and expected operating characteristics.
Campbell-Hill created a market phasing plan and estimated profitability through to initial steady state at the optimal minimal fleet requirement with comparisons to existing peer group performance.
The Results: Campbell-Hill delivered a comprehensive business model and market plan for a new entrant ULCC suitable for Executive level decision support.
Overview: Campbell-Hill supported Richmond in gaining nonstop air service to the Western U.S.
The Challenge: Richmond, Virginia lacked nonstop air service to the Western United States
The Solution: Campbell-Hill and Richmond International Airport (RIC) developed a strategy to utilize a Small Community Air Service Development (SCASD) grant RIC secured to support new service to a Western serving hub. United Airlines’ Denver (DEN) hub was identified as a good match for expanded West assess out of RIC. Campbell-Hill worked with RIC staff and developed a detailed air service business case quantifying potential future United passengers and revenue along with a forecast of performance. RIC and Campbell-Hill presented the results to United at conferences and at its headquarters.
The Results: United added nonstop service from Richmond to Denver in April 2016. The service has been so successful that it was up-gauged to mainline service for peak months of 2017 with a second daily flight was added for Summer of 2018.
Overview: A client requested assistance with a review of their pricing, yield management and market distribution strategies to optimize their competitive position in the marketplace.
The Challenge: With the evolution of new airline business models, changes in distribution and more sophisticated tools for measuring competition, the client was concerned their tactics were losing effectiveness.
Airline consumers are exceptionally price sensitive which requires air carriers to maintain competitive pricing, monitor and adjust to changing competitive dynamics and create unique products to gain a competitive advantage.
The Solution: Campbell-Hill worked closely with client’s PYM, Planning and Marketing groups to evaluate processes, strategic initiatives, and measure effectiveness of current competitive strategies.
We were able to identify opportunities for improvements and clearly establish both short and long term strategies for optimizing competitive positioning, and establish metrics to guide development and modifications to new strategic initiatives.
The Results: The client improved its competitive positioning and reported consistent gains in unit revenue.
Regulatory Analysis & Litigation Support
Overview: Campbell-Hill quantified the benefits to U.S. consumers of Southwest Airlines Expansion at Dallas Love Field which helped in convincing Congress to repeal the Wright Amendment that restricted flights from Dallas Love Field airport
The Challenge: For years, flights from Dallas Love Field were restricted by Congress to the states bordering Texas. Southwest began an effort to repeal the Wright Amendment that created these restrictions. Campbell-Hill was hired to quantify the consumer savings and the economic impact of Southwest Airlines being able to expand its service to more distant markets from Dallas.
The Solution: Campbell-Hill assessed the logical new routes Southwest Airlines would add from Dallas Love Field if the Wright Amendment was repealed
Campbell-Hill estimated new Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex passengers that would be generated from the additional service, fare savings from the additional service and the economic impact (output, employment and jobs)
The Results: The Wright Amendment was repealed-allowing Southwest to expand beyond the states that surround Texas
As of 2016, Southwest expansion at Love Field actually generated nearly $1 billion in annual consumer savings and increased Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex passengers by over 5 million per year
Overview: Campbell-Hill supported the Cargo Airline Association in analyzing and evaluating the methodology and findings by the FAA in support of imposing new restrictions on flight crew hours.
The Challenge: The FAA analysis failed to recognize the significant differences between passenger and cargo carriers in terms on aircraft types and flight operations, as well as the major impact new rules would have on the operation of air cargo networks. The analysis also did not accurately measure the costs of implementing the rules and greatly overstated the benefits for an industry that already had a high level of safety.
The Solution: In cooperation with member airlines, we identified and measured both the cost impacts from the new rule and the operational effects on the ability to provide efficient cargo access to U.S. and world markets. A detailed analysis of the accident data used by FAA, in combination with an accurate application of the FAA’s own cost-benefit techniques, effectively eliminated all projected benefits.
The Results: Campbell-Hill’s cost-benefit analysis resulted in CAA’s air cargo airlines being exempted from the new rule with the results cited in the findings.
Overview: Campbell-Hill prepared exhibits supporting the Hawaiian Airlines’ successful bid to enter the restricted U.S.-Tokyo market
The Challenge: Hawaiian Airlines was seeking access to Tokyo Haneda Airport (the most convenient airport to downtown Tokyo) that had become available as part of a new agreement between the U.S. and Japan. Only 4 daily roundtrips were available for award by the U.S. DOT for all U.S. airlines. Including Hawaiian, five airlines requested a total of 10 daily roundtrips.
Campbell-Hill was hired to distinguish Hawaiian’s Honolulu proposal from those of the competing airlines (Delta, American, United and Continental).
The Solution: Campbell-Hill worked closely with Hawaiian’s network planners and counsel to develop exhibits highlighting the unique benefits offered by Hawaiian’s proposal.
Hawaiian’s key strengths were: Hawaiian would be a new entrant in the U.S.-Tokyo market; the proposed Tokyo-Hawaii market was the largest U.S.-Japan market; and the economic impact to the United States was far greater for Hawaiian’s proposal than the other carriers in the proceeding.
Campbell-Hill produced over 200 pages of exhibits and analysis through three rounds of filings in support of Hawaiian’s proposal.
The Results: Hawaiian’s proposed service was awarded one of the four available Tokyo Haneda roundtrips. The key benefits developed in the exhibits where repeated by the U.S. DOT when selecting Hawaiian’s proposal.
Hawaiian has hired Campbell-Hill in subsequent Tokyo Haneda proceedings and we helped it gain service to Kona as well in 2016.
Overview: The U.S. Department of Justice (“DOJ”) requested expert assistance in support of their complaint seeking to block the transfer of slots at Newark Liberty International Airport (“EWR”).
The Challenge: DOJ needed to understand and demonstrate both the competitive effects of slot limitations and consumer harm stemming from the proposed transaction.
Specifically, how the acquisition and control of limited landing and take-off slots at EWR by the dominant carrier limited competition and caused fares to higher than would occur with more open competition.
The Solution: Campbell-Hill was tasked to prepare an extended report on the history of Industry competition since deregulation, the effects of consolidation and changing business models on pricing and consumer choices and ultimately fares.
This expert report included detailed analysis of the FAA slot allocations, airline trading, selling and use of slots, the need for and availability, or lack thereof, of commercially viable slots to new entrant competitors.
An analysis of the EWR hub, competition and effects of slot controls on consumer choice and fares was necessary to demonstrate the harm of artificially constrained competition.
The Results: Campbell-Hill delivered a comprehensive report and was prepared to provide expert testimony though the case was settled following a change in the IATA slot controls at EWR.
Overview: Since 2000, Campbell-Hill has produced numerous versions of a database used by the FAA and ICAO in modeling noise and emissions policy impacts.
The Challenge: Aircraft configurations and classifications are not standard and can differ significantly between airlines (and within airlines). Key characteristics that affect noise levels and emissions such as operating weights and combustors can be changed over time and are not accurately reflected in standard fleet data bases. Accurate noise and emissions characteristics by airline type and country of domicile are critical to accurately modeling aircraft activities.
The Solution: A key element was successfully classifying and grouping aircraft/engine configurations using characteristics relevant to noise and emissions analysis. Each aircraft was assigned values using a combination of secondary data sources and reviews by individual airlines and national regulatory bodies.
The Results: The quality of the database has led to five updates with the latest completed in October 2017.